Richard Weitz Bio 05 Mar 2008World Politics Review Exclusive
On March 1, the conflict over the disputed outcome of last month's presidential elections in Armenia turned deadly when riot police and Interior Ministry troops clashed with armed opposition demonstrators in the capital city. Dozens of people were killed or injured in downtown Yerevan, where tens of thousands of Armenians had engaged in round-the-clock street protests and established a makeshift tent camp. The incident apparently started with a police tracer bullet accidentally ricocheted and killed a demonstrator, enraging the protesters to attack the police. The government responded to the melee by declaring a state of emergency in the capital and mobilizing the army to end the mass rallies that had characterized Yerevan since the losing candidates accused President Robert Kocharian of manipulating the results of the Feb. 19 election. They claimed that Kocharian, prevented by the constitution from running for a third term, resorted to buying votes, rigging ballots, and using government resources, such as the state-run media, to support the campaign of his preferred candidate, incumbent Prime Minister Serge Sarkisian.Armenia's central electoral commission declared that Sarkisian won the election outright in the first round with 53 percent of the vote, with former Armenian President Levon Ter-Petrosian, the main opposition candidate, receiving only 21.5 percent. Former speaker of the parliament, Artur Baghdasarian, obtained 17.7 percent of the eligible votes.Opposition leaders cited evidence of fraud and demanded annulment of the Feb. 19 results and the holding of another ballot. Since the elections, crowds of demonstrators had assembled in Freedom Square, frequently shouting the slogan "Fight, fight to the end." Ter-Petrosian appeared at several of the protest rallies and, at the end of February, filed a formal complaint with Armenia's constitutional court to overturn the declared results. Several senior government officials, since dismissed, have broken with Kocharian and backed Ter-Petrosian's claim of fraud.On Feb. 29, however, Sarkisian secured the support of third-place finisher Baghdasarian, who agreed to become Security Council secretary in the next government, thereby bolstering its legitimacy. The Council is the president's main advisory body; its leader is considered the third or fourth highest-ranking official in the country.Kocharian charged some protesters with attempting to launch a coup d'état. The president began his declaration of an emergency by announcing that "the self-nominated candidate Levon Ter-Petrosian who lost in the 2008 presidential election in the Republic of Armenia, and a group of adventure-seekers surrounding him, without acknowledging the reality of their defeat, took to illegal actions" by accumulating and transporting weapons and holding public marches without notifying the authorities. The state of emergency, issued by Kocharian and subsequently approved by the National Assembly, will remain in force until March 20. It suspends several constitutional guarantees, such as the right to strike and engage in public demonstrations, and imposes censorship, requiring the local media to report only government-provided information. The decree also endows the internal security forces with enhanced powers to control the movement of people and vehicles. Finally, it temporarily suspends activities of political parties and other nongovernmental organizations. "If participants in the disorder fire at police, I have no choice but to resort to the army's help," Kocharian explained in televised remarks following the clash. "And I am obliged to safeguard the safety of our citizens." Opposition leaders claim that government provocateurs placed firearms and other weapons near sleeping demonstrators in order to justify suppressing the peaceful demonstrations. General Seyran Ohanyan, the chief of the Armenian military staff, warned that the military would respond to any mass gatherings during this period with "very strong counteractions from Armenia's military forces." Saying he hoped to limit further violence, Ter-Petrosian, then briefly under house arrest, called on the demonstrators to end public protests for the duration of the state of emergency. Most people appear to have heeded his appeal, as well as government threats, to stay at home, but scattered looting was reported. The New York Times noted the incongruity of the strong support for Ter-Petroisian among the looters: "'I'm fighting for honesty,' said a man in his 50s, holding a stolen beer in one hand and a lemon in the other."International observers offered varying assessments of the elections. The 333 monitors from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) found many local irregularities, especially in the vote counting, but concluded that the process was "mostly" fair and an improvement over earlier ballot. Some world leaders, most notably Russian President Vladimir Putin, have congratulated Sarkisian on winning the election.Most Western governments have withheld formal endorsement, simply congratulating the Armenian people for holding the election. For example, U.S. State Department spokesperson Tom Casey issued a statement saying, "We congratulate the people of Armenia on the active and competitive presidential election," but added that "we also note that international monitors identified significant problems with electoral procedures." The department called on the authorities to rectify these flaws by holding recounts and taking steps to ensure future ballots are conducted better. "We also urge all political forces to continue observing the rule of law and to work peacefully and responsively for a democratic Armenia."The events in Armenia eerily resemble recent developments in Georgia. In early January 2008, Mikheil Saakashvili won a first-round victory in the country's presidential election, garnering 53 percent of the vote, while the second-place finisher received 27 percent. As in Armenia, international electoral observers certified the results despite criticizing instances of intimidation of opposition candidates, procedural shortcomings in ballot counting, and an unwarranted boost to the incumbent from his activities as head of state.The previous November, Saakashvili had imposed a state of emergency that suspended operations of the main opposition Imedi TV station and ordering the police to use force to end the mass rallies that had paralyzed downtown Tbilisi for a week. The protesters, hundreds of whom were injured in the police crackdown, claimed they were trying to defend Georgia's democratic system of government against Saakashvili's attempts to acquire dictatorial powers. The president accused the demonstrators of seeking to overthrow the government, but international human rights groups and some foreign governments criticized Saakashvili's move.Somewhat ironically, a similar mass protest in 1998 compelled Ter-Petrosian, whose reelection in 1996 was also tainted by charges of irregularities, to resign as the country's first freely elected president since Armenia regained independence in 1991. Critics recall his presidency as being marked by the repression of opposition parties and the death of at least one party activist held in police custody. Ter-Petrosian has referred to the protests as a "democratic revolution." Yet, his questionable past makes it difficult to characterize the current situation as another colored revolution such as those that occurred in several former Soviet republics during the 2003-2005 period. Richard Weitz is a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute and a World Politics Review contributing editor.
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